Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

Environmental Surveillance of Polioviruses in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil, in Support to the Activities of Global Polio Eradication Initiative

Wild polioviruses still remain endemic in three countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria) and re-emergency of wild polio has been reported in previously polio-free countries. Environmental surveillance has been used as a supplementary tool in monitoring the circulation of wild poliovirus (PVs) and/or vaccine-derived PVs even in the absence of acute flaccid paralysis cases. This study aimed to monitor the presence of polioviruses in wastewater samples collected at one wastewater treatment plant located in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. From December 2011 to June 2012 and from September to December 2012, 31 samples were collected and processed. RD and L20B cell cultures were able to isolate PVs and non-polio enteroviruses in 27/31 samples. Polioviruses were isolated in eight samples (type 1 Sabin = 1, type 2 Sabin = 5, and type 3 Sabin = 2). Vaccine-derived polioviruses were not detected nor evidence of recombination with other PVs or non-polio enterovirus serotypes were observed among the isolates. The Sabin-related serotypes 2 and 3 presented nucleotide substitutions in positions associated with the neurovirulent phenotype at the 5′-UTR. Changes in important Amino acid residues at VP1 were also observed in the serotypes 2 and 3. Environmental surveillance has been used successfully in monitoring the circulation of PVs and non-polio enteroviruses and it is of crucial importance in the final stages of the WHO global polio eradication initiative. Our results show the continuous circulation of Sabin-like PVs and non-polio enteroviruses in the analyzed area during the study period.     

An investigation on the physical,chemical and ecotoxicological characteristics of particulate matter emitted from light-duty vehicles

Particulate matter (PM) emitted from three light-duty vehicles was studied in terms of its physicochemical and ecotoxicological character using Microtox^® bioassay tests. A diesel vehicle equipped with an oxidation catalyst emitted PM which consisted of carbon species at over 97%. PM from a diesel vehicle with a particle filter (DPF) consisted of almost equal amounts of carbon species and ions, while a gasoline vehicle emitted PM consisting of ～90% carbon and ～10% ions. Both the DPF and the gasoline vehicles produced a distinct nucleation mode at 120 km/h. The PM emitted from the DPF and the gasoline vehicles was less ecotoxic than that of conventional diesel, but not in direct proportion to the emission levels of the different vehicles. These results indicate that PM emission reductions are not equally translated into ecotoxicity reductions, implying some deficiencies on the actual environmental impact of emission control technologies and regulations.     

Fertility of female mice fed coumestrol and diethylstilbestrol

Coumestrol, a compound produced by various legumes which exerts estrogen-like activity in animals, and diethylstilbestrol (DES) were studied as chemical agents for controlling reproduction in mice. Female mice were fed control diets or diets containing 100 ppm coumestrol for eight days. Female mice were exposed to males and reproductive tracts examined 14 days later. Litter size was not affected by 100 ppm dietary coumestrol but feed consumption was reduced 17%. Similar trials were conducted with mice fed 1 ppm DES. Vaginal plugs were present in 50% of the females fed 1 ppm DES, but no fetal pups were present. Feed intake was reduced 37% by the DES. Levels of 0, .1, .25, .50, .75 and 1.0 ppm DES were compared in two strains of mice, Swiss and ICR. Reproduction in both strains was totally inhibited by all DES treatments. The use of DES to control rodent populations warrants further investigation.     

Automated sizing,counting and identification of zooplankton by pattern recognition

A computerized system was developed to automate the analysis of zooplankton samples. Classification to major taxonomic group was based on discriminant analysis of morphological features. Images were generated either from preserved organisms or from silhouette photographs. The latter technique simplified large-scale sample storage. Accuracy of correct classification, among organisms regularly occurring in New England coastal waters, exceeded 90%. Critical problems were due to limitations inherent to the imaging of low contrast, randomly oriented objects by a vidicon camera. One solution would utilize an incoherent-to-coherent transducer in a binocular field of observation through which plankton entrained in a flowing medium passed.This work was supported in part by NOAA grant NA80AA-4 00023     

Density and extra-pair fertilizations in birds: a comparative analysis

Møller and Birkhead (1992, 1993) reported that extra-pair copulations (EPCs) occur more frequently in colonial than dispersed nesting birds. We comprehensively reviewed published data to investigate how breeding density affects extra-pair fertilizations (EPFs). Within species EPFs appeared to increase with density: two of three studies on colonial breeders and six of eight on dispersed nesters showed increases in EPFs with increasing density. However, comparisons among species (n?=?72) revealed no evidence that EPF frequencies correlated with (1) nesting dispersion, (2) local breeding density, or (3) breeding synchrony, even when each of these variables in turn was held constant and phylogenetic relationships were taken into account via contrast analyses. Methodological and biological reasons for the disparity between observational studies of EPCs and molecular genetic analyses of EPFs are discussed.